Are we heading into a classic central bank-created bust, following a boom fuelled by low interest rates? So far this has been primarily about asset prices. Is it really a recession if unemployment remains low? Minsky’s hedge, speculative and Ponzi categories are playing out as ...

This week we look at how to profit from a falling iron ore price. The market has been obsessed with the prospect of Chinese stimulus. Finally, belatedly, the realisation is emerging that the stimulus is not coming. Further, it looks as though the entire development sector is now effectively ...

Globally producer price indexes have turned down quite decisively. China is trying to deal with deflation. There are two main explanations, with diametrically diverging investment outcomes. Under the first scenario, producer price inflation is a leading indicator for consumer price inflation. Falls ...

It has been a volatile 6 months in macroeconomic outlooks. A year ago, it looked as if Australia was lagging behind the US economically; a few months ago that narrative reversed. And then it flip-flopped several more times. In this week's podcast, Nucleus Wealth's Chief Investment Officer Damien ...

Extraordinary scenes in Russia this week as a coup put a significant dent into Putin's aura of political invincibility. We examine the aftershocks for macroeconomics, political stability and investments. In particular, we look at the investment landscape for defense contractors, which ones benefit, ...

For the last few months we have been talking about how the soft data (i.e. surveys and forward looking) has been looking recessionary but the hard data has been surprisingly firm. That has started to change, and in the hard data we are seeing sweeping signs of a slowdown. In this week's podcast ...

We have seen a raft of comments and discussions from the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. The message has been disjointed. What has come through, whether he realises it or not, is the fundamental disconnect between government policy and central bank policy. On one hand, Australia is being ...

Vegetable oil prices have halved. Cereal prices are down 20%. Dairy similar. Sugar is one of the few food ingredients that is up (and Ukraine/Russia are not even major producers), but meat is down. At the same time, international shipping rates have plummeted. The Baltic Dry Index is about 75% ...

JP Morgan bought First Republic Bank, the USA’s second-biggest bank failure in history. The Federal Reserve hiked rates another 25 bps to their highest level in 16 years, along with Tuesday's surprise increase from the RBA. Jenny Craig is reportedly closing its operations after 40 years, as it ...

During COVID, right around the world governments suspended normal bankruptcy rules to keep companies alive. And it worked! Bankruptcies plunged in developed countries all over the world. But now, the rules are back to normal. Bankruptcies are starting to rise once more. Is this a sign that the ...